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Oscar Wilde once wrote:
"The world is a stage, but the play is badly cast" much
could be said about the Academy Awards; if the Academy Awards
winners represent the best that Hollywood can offer then
the Academy often gives the wrong awards at the wrong time
to the wrong people to make up for a slight. Unfortunately
some of my personal favorites didn't receive the nominations
that they deserved. "The Prestige" is very much a director's
movie with its deft shifts through time and its top notch
editing. I suspect that the Academy just didn't like this
film--it's a hybrid combining two different genres and,
the result, was that a lot of people didn't like it. Also,
it requires effort to follow the convoulted plot that the
Nolan brothers cook up from Christopher Priest's fantasy
novel of the same name. A pity because it is a marvelous
film that rewards with each viewing. It didn't earn enough
money and wasn't high profile enough which were the second
and third strikes against it. ***
Speaking of wrong, I'm often wrong about some of the
smaller awards but have consistently nailed the big ones.
I'll go out on a limb again with these predictions. I hope
I'm wrong about some of the films though because many of
the films that will win don't deserve to win. Let's take
a look at who the winners will be for the major categories
on Oscar's night: ***
Best Picture:
I suspect that Clint Eastwood's "Letters from Iwo Jima"
will pull this plum award and while the film is certainly
a major achievement for Eastwood, I wouldn't necessarily
call it the Best Film of The Year. Many of the other contenders
in this category are the equal (and some are superior) to
Eastwood's film. The fact that Eastwood is well liked and
that he defied convention by doing a film about the side
that lost the war (the Japanese) in a foreign language will
sway many voters to his camp. Although its box office performance
was dismal that hasn't stopped the Academy from rewarding
films they truly admire or that takes chances. I suspect
that the violence in Scorsese's film will probably turn
off many voters but the Director's Branch of the guild will
finally recognize the top notch talent (30 years too late
I might add) of one of America's most talented directors.
***
Best Director:
This will finally be Martin Scrosese's year. He deserved
it for "Taxi Driver" and for "Raging Bull" (not to mention
many other marvelous feature films). While "The Departed"
is a marvelous film with terrific performances and direction
from Sorcsese, he really deserved the award over twenty
years ago when he was producing his finest work. "The Departed",
although not quite a return to form (it's darn close though)on
the director's part, is an ambitious film with morally complex
characters that do recall many of his best films. The fact
that "The Departed" is a remake of "Infernal Affairs" may
weaken his bid but he turns it into a film with his signature
style. ***
Best Actor:
While I'm pulling for Peter O'Toole (for sentimental
reasons-he deserved it nearly 40 years ago for "Lawrence
of Arabia", "The Lion in Winter" or "Beckett") to finally
win one on his own merit (meaning not an "Honorary Award"
which should be called "The Award For Overlooked Artists
That Deserved It Long Ago"), I suspect that the powerful
performance by Forest Whitaker will sway Academy voters.
He's brilliant (although to O'Toole's credit he is as well)
and American the second of which will probably sway voters
as well. ***
Best Actress:
Helen Mirren's complex portrayal of "The Queen" in
the film of the same name will pull down Oscar gold for
this long deserving British actress. Despite strong performances
from Streep, Cruz, Dench and Winslet, Mirren will walk away
with the statue on the night of the Academy Awards. ***
Best Supporting:
I suspect that Eddie Murphy may finally be rewarded
for his box office performance over the years. Certainly
he gives a terrific performance in "Dreamgirls" but of all
the nominees Jackie Earl Haley gives the best performance
in "Little Children". If Haley wins (after years of being
given the cold shoulder by Hollywood) it will be vindication
of a terrific performer who found less and less work as
he morphed from child actor to adult. More importantly of
all the performers nominated Haley deserves it for a riveting
performance. ***
He's closely followed by screen vet Alan Arkin (receiving
only his second nomination) as a quirky grandfather who
is addicted to snorting heroin in "Little Miss Sunshine".
Both certainly deserve it for unusual, powerful performances
but when all is said and done I'm predicting Haley. ***
Best Supporting Actress:
I suspect Rinko Kikuchi's performance as a deaf mute
girl living in Japan in "Babel" will sway Oscar voters.
It's a stunning tour de force and one of the best of the
year. ***
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:
"Cars" owns this one which is too bad-it's one of Pixar's
least distinguished films. "Monster House" a funny, scary
CGI film using motion capture that was superior to "Cars".
Where "Cars" was clever, "Monster House" was downright fun
and funnier. **
Best Original Screenplay:
Witty with a dark streak "Little Miss Sunshine" defines
a dysfunctional family that still manages to function because
they ARE family. This ensemble drama certainly deserves
more than it will get and the Academy will award the smart
screenplay because, well, it's smart and funny. ***
Best Adapted Screenplay:
While "The Departed" is a top notch screenplay, I have
the feeling that the Academy may hold its origin as a foreign
thriller against it. "Little Children" on the other hand
came from a novel and perfectly captured the tone from the
novel in a film which is quite an accomplishment. It's difficult
to do that with just about any screenplay let alone one
adapted from another source. My personal pick "The Prestige"
didn't even rate a nomination so, given that it has 0% chance
of winning and my second choice (which is nominated) is
the bleak "Children of Men" which was released very late
in the year so its possible Academy members didn't see it.
As a result I'll go with the powerful screenplay for "Little
Children". ***
Best Documentary:
Even though he demonstrated the charisma of a two by
four when he ran for president, Al Gore's intelligent ecologically
minded "An Inconvenient Truth" will pull down this award.
It's an impressive film and Gore is impressive. Maybe he
should run again after this high profile documentary pulls
down the big O. My only question is whether or not Oscar
is recyclable after all or whether it was responsibly produced
by an ecologically friendly company. If not what would it
say accepting the award that might tarnish landfills? ***
Best Cinematography:
Both "Children of Men" and "Pan's Labyrinth" looked
impressive. The marvelous use of steady cam and long, involved
tracking shots will probably give "Children of Men" the
edge however "Pan's Labyrinth" has some amazing tracking
shots and looks beautiful. I'll go with Pan. It's hard to
argue with a faun that walks upright. By the way, "Pan"
will win for its impressive make-up effects which eschewed
CGI in favor of a man in a suit as Pan and some of the other
impressive creatures. ***
Best Foreign Film:
A no-brainer for "Pan's Labyrinth" although the gruesome
violence of the film in this adult fantasy may turn off
some Oscar voters. ***
Best Visual Effects:
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" is the
popular favorite to win here but I'm going to go with "Superman
Returns" which not only had impressive effects but managed
to work as a sequel to a film produced nearly 30 years ago.
That sequence where Superman saves the jet and lands it
in the middle of a baseball park nailed it for me. Besides,
I liked "Superman Returns" much better than "Pirates". ---
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